Democrats didn’t lost 2024 because of media, but it sure as hell didn’t help.
Donald Trump made unprecedented gains in the 2024 elections primarily due to dismay with the level of prices. However, this is a dull, blanket analysis, and much more is going on under the hood of the election vehicle. He also made otherwise questionable decisions to focus on new media. Democrats stuck to traditional media institutions like newsrooms and newspapers. Trump appeared on podcasts plenty, like Joe Rogan, Theo Von, Jake & Logan Paul, and even niche rightwing Twitch streamers. I, like most Democrats, balked at his strategy and lauded Harris for focusing on rallies and limiting her appearances. Harris ran a disciplined campaign— focusing on scripted appearances, limiting the possibility of slip-ups, and appeared on radio shows, including a podcast appearance on Call Her Daddy. I thought about the massive campaign rallies and her viral campaign moments (isolated to X liberal circles) and continued to cognitively bias myself, thinking that the enthusiasm equated to at least partial support among the broader apolitical electorate.
I, like many others, foolishly looked at the Trump communication strategy as indicative of a failing campaign desperately throwing shit at the wall to see if anything sticks. I thought the deep irony of a billionaire germaphobe doing a photo op at McDonalds would fail. I thought appearances on right-wing Twitch streams would fail. Boy, was I wrong. The Democratic communication and media teams must do a deep autopsy of where we failed. I know just the place to start.
The Solution: GO TO WHERE THE PEOPLE ARE! People spend all day on their cell phones, computers, and tablets. Buying television ads is good at swinging the people who still use them. But in a nation where 90% of people have a smartphone, and the mere-exposure effect is guiding the hearts and minds of millions, the cell phone is the future. The refusal to appear on Joe Rogan is the epitome of communication failures. I don’t listen to or watch Joe Rogan, I don’t imagine anyone who may read is a fan, nor do I ever plan to become a listener—but there are close to 20 million people who actively subscribe to that show and given Trump’s interview achieved close to 40 million viewers why did staffer’s not encourage Harris to go? Why was communications outreach so focused on TV and ad spending when social media can reach millions for nothing? The Harris team could’ve spent a few minutes here and there attempting to bolster her image on Instagram reels and TikTok. The opportunity for a viral video to reach millions could have more impact than expensive ads. The staffers had the opportunity to humanize Harris to millions of people. Why balk at the opportunity to let her go off script? Why refuse the opportunity to show millions of Americans the personality behind who could become the first female President? The social media offensive comes with its own drawbacks and complexities—but when the race was so important, what did we have to lose?
— GO ON THE OFFENSIVE! REACH DISINTERESTED AND LOW-INFORMATION VOTERS WHERE THEY ARE! You don’t win more votes by pandering to your base. Although largely anecdotal, the ebb of the ‘brat’ themed Harris memes was the new media with the broadest reach. Compare and contrast that with Trump’s survived assassination attempt, mugshot, McDonald photo-op, and even the viral “They’re eating the dogs, they’re eating the cats” comment. Although difficult to prove, we can attribute a sliver of his gains to mere exposure effects due to his ability to dominate new media. (maybe more, maybe even less) Maybe the Brat memes swung over disaffected female 18-29 voters? More likely, they were simply a trend that came and went. On a deeper level, the digital media outreach of young progressives thought that silly colors, coconut emojis, and trendy music would sway voters. The ballot box showed a different story.
Trump’s social media image was that of a man who survived a bullet to the head and then posed for a photo op. Trump served french fries, climbed into a garbage truck, and walked around grocery stores complaining about costs. THIS. WORKED. It didn’t matter. Trump may have never had to shop for groceries, never had to fear the cost of eggs, or serve french fries at a minimum wage job (which Harris did), but the PERCEPTION was different. The unfunny brat memes alienated large swaths of social media users, communicating that Harris was an unserious candidate. Trump capitalized on this. Trump spoke to people’s pain about the economy. The Harris team had a perfect opportunity after she became a presumptive candidate to harness the fundraising blitz and the social media buzz to get her face out there. Harris had a unique opportunity to challenge Trump on his home turf, digital media. This opportunity fell flat. The campaign squandered the goodwill and buzz of the summer rather than building something innovative. For the first time since 2012, the Democratic candidate was charismatic. Harris’s team could have put her front and center on TikTok and Instagram, explaining her message, her argument, and her overall bid for the Presidency in a manner that could reach millions for free.
The domination of Trump on social media and his ability to reach people is unrivaled. His ability to come off as authentic is unmatched. Despite being a billionaire who has never had to work manual labor a day, his authenticity is in every other regard that has never been seen before. Democrats need to take notes on how a television star broke historical tradition and reshaped the political landscape in his image—instead, we were scribbling on the paper. Democrats’ fear and clinging to old conduct killed us. It killed us in 2016. It helped us scrape by 2020. It came back with a vengeance in 2024.
In retrospect, the Harris campaign had many problems, and we can debate whether those circumstances are part of a broader inability to persuade Americans effectively another time. We can point out that Harris performed better in swing states relative to the national shift, which means her campaigning did something—again, focus on the broader issues here. I can’t tell you which staffer or which communication chair made this decision, but this could very well be the biggest fuck up in recent history (there are a lot of fuck ups in recent history, but for the sake of argument…) is not appearing on Joe Rogan. For a campaign that had so much enthusiasm with the Democratic base, it was evident that the goal was to broaden the voter base and make inroads elsewhere. Campaigning with Liz Cheney, touting the endorsement of Republican Administration alums, and taking moderate positioning was a good strategy. Harris had the set-up right for a bipartisan pivot and made the future her central argument. But the argument DID NOT reach people. She had the policy, she had the support of the Democratic base, she had the bipartisan support, but she could manage to effectively get her message to people despite close to 1.5$ billion dollars spent.
“Some of our progressive staff pushed back, not wanting her on the show and worrying about backlash,” Harris campaign adviser Jennifer Palmieri said on Wednesday at a New York conference organized by The Clearing House, a payments group owned by major U.S. banks.” Newsweek
Hindsight is 2020. However, it’s becoming readily apparent that 2020 is a stain on Democratic communications. The chickens have come home to roost on policy positions taken during the Democratic primary. Fear of comments over the pandering to the progressive wing and the necessity to moderate in 2024 fuck the campaign over. Rather than bite the bullet and take a proactive approach, the campaign attempted to ignore the elephant in the room rather than challenge it immediately. The fact that Harris didn’t get to build a new campaign from scratch, an open Democratic primary, or even simply more time to succeed Biden will always be a lingering “What-If.” Perhaps if given her campaign staff and the hiring of new staff, she wouldn’t have made these fatal missteps. Maybe she could’ve further distinguished herself from the Biden administration with more time. Maybe she doesn’t win the nomination during a hypothetical open primary, which becomes moot. To keep the argument brief, the focus needs to be on the Democratic establishment to understand the new media environment and adapt quickly.
Digital media is the future, and Democrats in the future will have to dominate to win. Just like Obama wielding Facebook in 2008 or even TikTok and its influence on anti-Trump sentiment in 2020 or even its anti-Biden flip in 2024, social media is where the average American is. So my prescription to all Democrats now and in the future is GO TO THE VOTERS! We can pretend that the social media prowess of Democrats like Representative Jeff Jackson or Representative Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez is not nearly as important as they are, but the writing is on the wall. Social media is the new medium, and it will take 180 of our traditional communications to reach Americans. In an ecosystem where people don’t read newspapers, where political and news information stems from TikTok, Democrats need to expand their field of view.
“A large majority of U.S. adults (86%) say they at least sometimes get news from a smartphone, computer or tablet, including 57% who say they do so often” Pew Research.
Losing electoral coalitions (and winning ones) in recent memory have much in common. What does the image above say? High education and high-income heavy campaigns are not winning ones. Effective campaigns need to reach low-education and low-income groups. You don’t win elections by losing the low-income Americans, and you sure as hell don’t win by dominating with high-education and high-income Americans. You don’t reach construction workers and cashiers by posting complex policy documents or Instagram infographics. You don’t reach voters by minimizing appearances. You reach voters by meeting them where they are. You don’t expect voters to come to you. You don’t expect someone who works a 12-hour shift to go home and learn complex macroeconomics and political science. You don’t expect this person to seek out novel political information to make the most informed decision. You reach this person by showing up on their social media feed when they’re scrolling in bed. You reach all these people by having viral social media moments. Trump understands this. Why can’t Democrats? Trump won in 2016 because of fucking memes. He won in 2024 because of podcasts, memes, and short-form video content. Trump 2016 Meme Theory. Maybe Harris could’ve eeked out a narrow victory by a little more social media outreach and a little less celebrity appearances at rallies.
The new way forward and the lessons for Democrats in the future are to MEET VOTERS WHERE THEY ARE AND PRIORITIZE DISTINCT MESSAGING. The necessity of meeting voters where they are will be the winning strategy as it always has been. FDR capitalized on the use of Radio, JFK nabbed the presidency from his television appearance, and Trump dominated the social media space. Democrats need to adapt to the new media environment—not abandon old media as that is where the reliable Democratic base now sits, but expand the offensive field. Democrats at lower levels must prioritize distinct messages rather than national party unity. Re-establishing big-tent politics will require distinct Democrats to enter Republican-friendly territory and find ways to swing voters. We rebuild majorities by taking distinct policy positions from the national party and meeting your district where they are. I’ll elaborate in another post about how I believe Democrats can revitalize the Clintonian playbook and build big majorities in 2026 and 2028. Democrats cannot become the party of coastal, highly educated, high-income earners. The racial depolarization of 2024 showed Democrats that we need to be the party of all Americans again. The party identity needs to be rebuilt—By forming a future Common Sense Caucus, I see the path forward for Democrats to retake the presidency and sweep the nation. With a new communication strategy the Democratic brand can be rebuilt.