She can win big (and lead the party to bigger victories downballot)
On September 10th, 2024, former President and convicted felon Donald Trump and sitting Vice President Kamala Harris held the second presidential debate of the season. It’s a stimulating matchup—imagine if the last ten years had never happened, and you knew nothing about these people. Conventional logic might suggest Harris, with her background as a former senator, district attorney, and now Vice President would be on track for a landslide victory. However, that is far from reality.
Since President Biden ended his re-election campaign, Kamala Harris has taken up the Democratic mantle and revitalized the party. In the days since her presidential bid began, she’s raised over a billion dollars, breaking fundraising records and sparking enthusiasm in down-ballot races. Polling aggregates show she’s undone much of Trump’s previous gains against Biden, with the Rust Belt leaning in her favor and states like Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada now within reach. Harris even leads in North Carolina (#BlorthCarolina). Her path to the presidency is there, though it’s a monumental climb. At the crossroads between a razor-thin race and a potential landslide, Harris could, by conventional standards, be expected to win decisively. Yet, in today’s hyper-partisan world, the competition is over the few hundred thousand undecided voters in seven key states.
Part 1: Trump is Old and Out of Touch
Donald Trump has been a political phenomenon since he announced his candidacy a decade ago, descending a golden escalator while spewing inflammatory remarks about immigrants. Initially dismissed as a joke, he overperformed electorally and shocked the nation by defeating Hillary Clinton. Even in 2020, amidst a historic pandemic, economic turmoil, and racial tensions, Trump significantly outperformed expectations, with polls underestimating his support.
However, the Trump of 2024 is not the same. The once vibrant, social media-savvy candidate is now a shadow of his former self—old, weak, and increasingly bizarre. His political power is waning. In last night’s debate, he rambled about conspiracy theories, including AI-generated images of Haitian immigrants supposedly eating cats and dogs, something parroted by his VP choice, J.D. Vance. Trump continues to spread racialized disinformation and false claims about immigration, appearing increasingly out of touch with the concerns of the average voter.
What we saw in Trump last night was more akin to a ranting, out-of-touch relative who’s fallen into the echo chambers of far-right disinformation. His focus on divisive, bizarre topics like the “great replacement theory” and his obsession with conspiracy-laden narratives reveal a candidate who no longer understands the pulse of the broader electorate. Most Americans are more concerned with the cost of living, healthcare, and jobs—not far-right theories about immigrants. Tim Walz summed it up well when he said Trump and his Republicans are simply “weird.”
Kamala Harris, on the other hand, demonstrated poise and clarity. While Trump rambled about nonsensical immigration theories, Harris focused on substantive issues that affect Americans daily: the cost of living, housing, healthcare, and childcare. She exposed Trump as incoherent, rambling, and stuck in a world of online disinformation. The contrast could not have been starker, with Harris projecting presidential demeanor and showing she’s prepared to address the real issues facing voters.
Part 2: The Fading Novelty of Trump
Trump’s appeal in 2016 was his novelty. His brand of inflammatory rhetoric and unapologetic attitude toward social norms shocked the political world, making him a media sensation. He made politics “fun” for some, with his brash attacks on opponents (remember “Little Marco,” “Lyin’ Ted,” and “Crooked Hillary”?). But novelty only lasts so long. By 2020, his insults lost steam, and in 2024, he doesn’t even have a memorable nickname for Harris.
Trump’s outsider appeal is long gone. He’s no longer the maverick who defied political norms but rather a figure whose antics have grown tiresome to many. His campaign now feels dated, his attacks predictable. MAGA-branded candidates performed poorly in 2022, signaling that the movement’s moment may be fading. Americans have been asking for something new for years, yet the Republicans keep recycling the same old faces—Trump being the most prominent among them.
Harris, by contrast, represents something different. She has the opportunity to present herself as the fresh face voters have been seeking. If she can capitalize on this, she may be able to energize the electorate in a way Trump can no longer do.
Part 3: The Communicator in Chief
In today’s world, Americans expect their president to not only lead but also communicate effectively, inspiring confidence and addressing their concerns. In this hyper-polarized environment, that expectation is nearly impossible to meet, yet it remains crucial for electoral success.
Donald Trump’s communication strategy in 2016 capitalized on chaos and disruption. His bombastic style captured media attention and energized a segment of the electorate. But in 2024, Trump’s rhetoric feels increasingly disconnected from reality. His message now revolves around revisionist nostalgia for his presidency, where he blames immigrants for the country’s problems and leans into the same divisive themes.
Harris, on the other hand, has the opportunity to connect with voters on an emotional and practical level. While Trump continues to peddle outdated and divisive talking points, Harris can position herself as the empathetic leader Americans need. By focusing on the economy and addressing the everyday struggles of voters—such as rising grocery prices and healthcare costs—she can create a compelling case for why she’s the right choice for 2024. Trump, meanwhile, offers little beyond nostalgia for a past that never quite was.
Conclusion: Harris’s Race to Lose
Ultimately, the 2024 election is shaping up to be a referendum on Donald Trump’s waning appeal versus Kamala Harris’s promise of new leadership. Trump is at his lowest point in a decade, and his increasingly out-of-touch rhetoric could prove to be his undoing. If Harris continues to stay focused on the issues that matter most to voters and can effectively counter Trump’s economic messaging, the election is hers to win.
The path is clear for Harris to secure a decisive victory—if she can stay on the offensive and avoid the pitfalls of hyper-partisanship that have plagued recent campaigns. By positioning herself as the empathetic, solutions-oriented leader America needs, she can deliver the final rebuke to Trumpism and lead the Democratic party to victory. At the time of writing, on September 17th, my ballpark estimate is that we will see an electoral reduction in 2020, with North Carolina falling into the Harris category. Although pundits and pollsters alike would love to maintain that this will be close, my guestimation based on nothing (so take it with a grain of salt) is that Harris will ultimately eek out a victory of roughly 6 points nationally. Something along the lines of Harris’s 52/53% to Trump’s 46/45.
