2024 Election Retrospective and Context

In retrospect, a million separate factors, decisions, and moments ultimately illustrate everything that went wrong for Harris and, more so, correct for Trump. I’m here solely to contextualize everything that happened to get us here.

Parts 2 and 3 may be the autopsy of what went wrong. All that to say, I was very wrong, and let’s talk about what happened and how I got it so bad. I strongly considered removing my previous post out of embarrassment about how I went wrong. Still, I now see that my overconfidence and line of reasoning will prove valuable in later assessing what explicitly went wrong along the way. Ultimately, comparing the line of logic from my previous post about how she would, could have, and (depending on who you ask, should have) won is telling of the mistakes made and understood by looking back.

Although voter turnout appears to decrease from 2020, the current numbers are no small feat. Amid waves of economic anxiety, cultural issues, and other pervasive problems, the two candidates presented contrasting visions for the nation’s future. In what can only be considered a massive historical development, Donald Trump broke precedent and defied political logic with his decisive victory. Despite his controversial tenure from 2016 to 2020—during which he lost the popular vote, faced widespread protests, and was impeached twice—Trump returned to secure the presidency again in 2024. This time, however, he succeeded in securing the popular vote.

Trump’s first presidency was riddled with challenges. He faced widespread resistance after winning the Electoral College in 2016 but losing the popular vote. His efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act failed, and his signature legislative achievement was the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. His failure to repeal Obama and Democrats’ signature health care bill was the first of many failures. In addition to legislative setbacks, Trump was criticized for stoking racial tensions and encouraging violence, particularly during the protests against police brutality in 2020. His rhetoric often inflamed divisions, leading to widespread unrest and accusations of exacerbating racial violence. His attempts at major legislative reforms beyond tax cuts essentially stalled, including failed efforts on infrastructure and healthcare. In 2018, Democrats regained control of the House in a wave election, limiting Trump’s ability to pass significant legislation. Trump’s presidency also faced two impeachments. The first was over his interactions with Ukraine and an attempt to withhold military aid in exchange for political information on rivals, which he survived due to Senate Republican support. After the COVID-19 crisis, Trump was impeached a second time for his actions on January 6th, 2021, when a violent attack on the U.S. Capitol occurred. Though the Senate gained more Republican votes to convict him, the attempt failed, and Trump returned to Florida. Despite these failures, Trump’s notable success was in reshaping the judiciary, appointing hundreds of federal judges and three Supreme Court justices, cementing a conservative influence on the judiciary for years to come.

The Biden administration faced an unfavorable political and economic environment upon arrival. COVID-19 left the economy on unstable ground. Threats of stalled economic growth and thousands of Americans dying each day left the Biden admin with a short window to take decisive action. This brief window resulted in a massive fiscal stimulus from Biden and Democrats. The American Rescue Plan was hotly debated among macroeconomics about whether or not it would stoke inflation, with the consensus that the need for 600-900 billion was necessary but possibly too small. Biden and the congress opted to go big rather than risk going too small, having learned the lesson from weak economic recovery post-Great Recession. The economy would soon stabilize, and as the COVID-19 infections died down and restrictions were lifted, the economy would roar back to life. The hot labor market, massive pent-up consumer demand, vital consumer savings, supply constraints, and an energy crisis due to the war in Europe fueled inflation levels not seen since the 1970s.  All this to say, the American Rescule Plan aimed to plug the output gap. (Great Analysis of the debate at that point in time.)

The influx of stimulus money increased demand while supply chains struggled to adjust, causing inflation to rise. The hot macroeconomy, with rapid economic growth and low unemployment, further contributed to inflationary pressures as demand for goods and services outpaced supply. The perfect storm of an unfavorable global macroeconomic environment, plus the general pessimism and distrust of governments post-COVID, and when President Biden oversaw the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, chaotic images of the evacuation—including a deadly bombing that killed 13 U.S. Marines—further damaged his approval rating. Additionally, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 caused a sharp rise in energy prices, leading to higher transportation and production costs, exacerbating inflation across various sectors.

Despite these challenges, Biden’s administration also had significant achievements, including the bipartisan infrastructure law, which aimed to modernize roads, bridges, and public transit across the nation; the appointment of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court, marking a historic moment as she became the first Black woman to serve on the Court; the PACT Act, which expanded healthcare access for veterans exposed to toxic substances; and the CHIPS Act, which aimed to bring microchip manufacturing back to the United States and bolster national security. The administration also saw successes in expanding renewable energy investments, addressing climate change through new policies, and enacting student debt relief measures to ease the burden on millions of borrowers. Biden fueled a manufacturing boom due to friendly industrial policies, in which semi-conductors and other manufacturing efforts brought jobs back to the states. Abroad, Biden played a pivotal role in strengthening NATO alliances in response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, re-engaging with international climate agreements, and supporting Ukraine through military and humanitarian aid. Ultimately, after his “Build Back Better” agenda failed, the Inflation Reduction Act became Biden’s capstone legislative achievement, focusing on healthcare costs, energy, and climate initiatives.

In 2022, inflation continued to rise, fueled partly by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which drove up energy and food prices. This resulted in a cost-of-living crisis, with wages struggling to keep pace. However, the fiscal stimulus allowed the state of the consumer to stay strong, with consumer spending being a main driver of economic growth despite warnings from economists of impending recessions. The United States experienced the lowest inflation rate among G7 countries and saw the most robust post-COVID growth compared to other nations. The Biden administration’s fiscal policy aimed to achieve full employment, and wages for low-income workers rose significantly. This increase in consumer spending kept the economy buoyant but was inherently inflationary and, coupled with global supply shocks, led to higher interest rates.

Despite Biden’s low approval ratings, the Democrats performed better than expected in the 2022 midterms, gaining a Senate seat in Pennsylvania and holding on to Nevada by a slim margin. This success was primarily fueled by outrage over the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade in the Dobbs decision. Meanwhile, former President Trump faced numerous legal troubles, including civil and criminal cases in multiple states. Though convicted in New York, Trump’s legal challenges did not hinder his presidential ambitions.

The 2024 presidential campaign initially seemed like a sure win for Biden. Despite challenges from other Democratic figures, Biden quickly swept through the primary, securing his party’s nomination. On the Republican side, Trump faced resistance from a wide field of talented GOP candidates, but he ultimately emerged victorious, consolidating support and sweeping the GOP primary. The general election campaign was marked by a dramatic first debate, during which Trump bested Biden, who appeared old, feeble, and forgetful. Biden struggled to communicate his administration’s accomplishments effectively, and Trump capitalized on this, attacking Biden on issues like border security, Ukraine, and instability on the global stage. Shortly afterward, Biden ended his campaign, and Vice President Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee. Notable, however, is Biden dropping out of the race after the Republican National Committee. With the Trump/Vance ticket solidified and a Republican base unified around the now assassin surviving former felon, sights turned back to Democrats.

Upon Biden’s withdrawal, Harris quickly secured the nomination, raised over a billion dollars, and chose Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota as her running mate. In the initial chaos and infighting in the Democratic party after Biden’s career ended debate performance, the future was unclear. Although unclear at the time, it has now been made clear that congressional leaders had a hand in forcing Biden aside. Former Speaker Pelosi, Majority Leader Schumer, Minority Leader Jeffries, and former President Obama included. Rumors are now flying that Pelosi and congressional Democrats initially wanted an open primary and to move away from the Biden-Harris ticket; despite these rumors, whether true or not, Biden quickly endorsed Harris. In remembering his outrage at Obama not endorsing Biden in 2016 and forcing him aside for Hillary Clinton, Biden opted not to mirror the situation. Harris’s quick action rallied the Democratic establishment around her. Donors that once withheld donations to pressure Biden to step aside made it clear they supported Harris, as she would go on to raise over 1 billion dollars. With robust campaign infrastructure and fundraising efforts, it seemed as if Harris had the attention of the nation and the enthusiasm to make history.

Harris quickly revitalized the Democratic Party, immediately reversing Trump’s polling gains, raising insane amounts of money, and generating massive media attention. The enthusiasm surrounding her campaign reached new heights as she transformed her profoundly negative approval rating into a positive one in record time. Harris’s media appearances, rallies, and speeches captivated audiences, helping to reenergize the Democratic base. She moved quickly to consolidate support and pivot the massive campaign to herself. Harris then faced the critical decision to select her vice-presidential candidate, which fueled enthusiasm for her campaign. The three leading contenders were Senator and astronaut Mark Kelly, Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota, and Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania. Ultimately, Harris chose Tim Walz, whose experience and appeal to Midwestern voters added a strategic advantage to the ticket, further resetting the state of the race. Harris continued to gain in the polls, and it seemed as if Trump’s luck had run out. With Democratic enthusiasm recharged, flush with cash, and Harris beginning to lead the polls, however, this would soon fail.

As the election drew closer and closer, Harris aimed to make strategic pivots on the border to counter Trump’s attacks. Harris proposed housing plans, plans to expand on the ‘care’ economy, and other measures to make a name for her ticket. Despite appearing weaker and in a poor position, Trump made otherwise ridiculous campaign moves. Trump campaigned in deep blue New York City and traveled around traditionally Democratic states. His campaign proclaimed that they had data showing that solidly blue states were in play. The concept that deep blue states like New Jersey and Virginia were in play drew ridicule from pundits, analysts, and historians alike. How could Donald Trump, who had yet to win a popular vote, swing some of the most profound blue states?

Trump’s rallies drew smaller and smaller crowds, but his strategic messaging centered heavily on inflation and economic dissatisfaction. He relentlessly attacked Harris and the Democrats for their handling of the economy, emphasizing the struggles of everyday Americans with rising costs. Trump’s focus on economic dissatisfaction resonated with voters frustrated with inflation and the increasing cost of living. He also highlighted issues like border security and national pride, which helped strengthen his appeal to key voter bases. External events, such as renewed concerns over immigration and instability abroad, further boosted Trump’s campaign. These combined factors allowed Trump to successfully narrow Harris’s polling lead from 4.5 points to less than a point as Election Day approached.

Polling indicated that Trump made significant gains with minority voters and young people, who were traditionally Democratic bases. These gains were primarily attributed to targeted outreach efforts, such as podcasts and nontraditional media outreach. Other specific campaign promises aimed at economic empowerment and job creation pared with a sense of nostalgia for his previous term. Trump’s messaging on economic dissatisfaction and the impact of inflation resonated with these groups, who were looking for tangible improvements in their daily lives. Additionally, shifts in voter concerns, particularly around public safety issues and economic stability, contributed to the increase in support from these demographics. Despite the statistical actuality of these concerns, they were nonetheless real. Trump spoke to how people FELT about crime, immigration, and the economy, completely disregarding facts or numbers and talking to people’s emotions.

Trump defied expectations on election night. Political pundits and Democratic optimists believed that Harris’s enthusiasm and the Democratic base’s excitement could carry her to victory. Still, ultimately, the economic environment, inflation, and voters’ negative sentiment worked against her. Trump made gains everywhere across the country, particularly in deep blue areas. Trump completely turned around traditional electoral patterns, winning Latino men outright and making gains with otherwise traditionally Democratic groups.

Despite the United States having the fastest-growing economy in the world, low unemployment, and significant investments in infrastructure and industry, many Americans did not feel that the economy was strong. This disconnect was mainly due to rising living costs, wage stagnation, and a lack of perceived economic stability. Many households struggled with inflation that outpaced wage growth, making it difficult to feel the benefits of broader economic gains. Negative economic sentiment persisted. Ultimately, the root causes of America’s pessimism are points of debate, whether it be the initial shock of inflation or other related factors. Historians, economists, and politicians will debate it for decades. The most precise and evident picture to be painted is that voters HATE inflation. Incumbent political parties across the globe have been punished for inflation with no clear ideological basis. In the U.K., the Tories were punished, leading to labor taking power—similar stories in France, Italy, India, and now, the United States. Given the relative overperformance by an incumbent party member, Harris did well, given the global context and the situation.

The 2024 election results underscored a deep political divide in the country. Trump’s ability to galvanize his base and expand his appeal to key demographic groups, including working-class voters and minorities, contributed to his success. His messaging focused heavily on economic issues, border security, and national pride, resonating with voters who felt disconnected from the Biden administration’s policies. Trump leveraged voters’ frustrations with inflation and the cost of living, framing himself as the leader who could bring stability and prosperity back to the country. He also exposed a fundamental weakness in the Democratic Party: the failure to connect with voters on kitchen table issues, the inability to assuage culture war fears, and the failure to make a compelling argument to the public about the dangers of a second Trump presidency. Despite 8 years of drum-banging about the danger Trump is, the American electorate decided they are okay with the character and man he is–so long as prices go down.

Kamala Harris’s campaign faced numerous challenges, primarily the shadow of Biden’s unpopularity. Many Democratic leaders and party members were unsure about Harris’s ability to lead the ticket, especially after Biden’s faltering approval ratings. Key figures in the party expressed concerns privately, questioning whether Harris could effectively counter Trump’s appeal. Biden’s unpopularity, particularly after the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and the persistent inflation, further complicated her campaign’s efforts to rally voters. Despite her extensive campaign efforts, including rallying support from prominent figures and a well-funded ground game, Harris struggled to overcome the economic headwinds and Trump’s powerful messaging, which focused heavily on economic dissatisfaction, inflation, and a sense of lost national pride. Trump’s direct and emotionally resonant appeals to voters’ fears about the economy and national security were particularly effective, contrasting with Harris’s more policy-focused arguments that failed to connect emotionally. The Harris-Walz ticket aimed to build on Biden’s achievements, emphasizing infrastructure investments, healthcare expansion, and social justice, but it wasn’t enough to sway undecided voters in crucial battleground states. As the data continues to roll in, it appears that voters punished Harris for being too similar to the deeply unpopular Biden administration. Trump campaigned as a nostalgic return to his ‘good economy’ and the change agent to move away from Biden. This led him to an undeniable success.

Trump’s success, however, is far less dominant than it may appear on the surface. Despite winning the popular vote, sweeping the swing states, and cutting traditionally Democratic margins in safe states–Trump failed to lead the Republicans to a similar level of victory. Congressional Republicans failed to sweep the House, and although they will almost certainly wield control in January, the down-ballot lag is highly apparent. Similarly, Democrats across the country overperformed Harris in Senate races. Republicans still managed to pick up four seats, one which was all but certain before the polls even closed and two that seemed highly likely. Ultimately, the Senate candidates in deep-red Montana and Ohio vastly overperformed Harris. A similar story is evident in Texas, where Collin Allred outperformed Harris despite Trump making gains in the state, and in the former blue wall states where Democrats held their seats. Pennsylvania, among them, appears to be the only swing state Trump won where the Republican Senate flipped to his party. Many Democrats performed well down-ballot, given the shifts in the electorate. Democrats managed to gain state legislature seats, state senate seats, and a plethora of other races in states. Trump won the top of the ticket… insinuating that his strength failed to apply to other Republicans in other places.

Ultimately, the 2024 election was a referendum on Biden’s presidency and a testament to Trump’s enduring influence over the Republican Party and his base. Despite facing legal challenges, impeachment trials, and controversy, Trump presented himself as a resilient leader who could navigate the country through turbulent times. His victory marked a significant moment in American politics, signaling a continued era of polarization and division. The implications of Trump’s victory extend to critical areas of American policy. On industrial policy, Trump has promised to continue efforts to revive American manufacturing and reduce dependency on foreign supply chains, signaling potential shifts in tariffs and trade relations. On abortion access, the new administration, coupled with a conservative-leaning judiciary, is expected to restrict reproductive rights further, intensifying the debate across states. Immigration policy is also poised for drastic changes, with Trump likely to reinstate stricter border control measures and limit pathways to citizenship, which could have far-reaching effects on immigrant communities. Economically, Trump’s policies may prioritize tax cuts and deregulation, which are aimed at stimulating business but potentially exacerbating inequality. These key factors will inevitably affect Americans in all walks of life, directly through policy shifts or indirectly through broader economic and social impacts.

The election also highlighted broader trends in American society, including growing disillusionment with traditional political institutions and an increasing appetite for outsider candidates who promise radical change. Voters were motivated by economic anxiety, cultural concerns, and a desire for solid leadership, ultimately tipping the scales in Trump’s favor. Other conclusions must be drawn about the racial depolarization and newfound electoral configurations resulting from this election. For many Americans, the promise of financial stability and a return to “America First” policies outweighed concerns about Trump’s controversial past. Congressional Democrats, however, overperformed expectations, with many Senate and House candidates winning tight races despite Harris’s loss. Harris was able to narrow Trump’s margins in several swing states he won, showing that Democratic messages still resonated with specific voter segments. Looking forward, Democrats must understand the failures that led to this result: the need for new leadership, fresh voices to communicate effectively with voters, and a strategy that connects more deeply to economic and cultural issues. The party must reassess its approach heading into 2026 and 2028 to regain lost ground.

As the dust settles, the 2024 election reminds us of the country’s deep-seated divisions and the challenges for any administration. The Republican Party’s control of the executive and legislative branches allows Trump to implement his agenda. Still, it also raises questions about how he will address the nation’s pressing issues, including inflation, immigration, and international relations. The election’s outcome has set the stage for a new chapter in American politics that will undoubtedly shape the nation’s future for years to come.